A Perfect Storm is Brewing for Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa

IThe 2008 movie The Perfect Storm told the story of six Newfoundland fishermen whose boat sank during the rare convergence of three adverse weather events. The term ‘a perfect storm’ has been coined to describe “a critical state of affairs, arising from a confluence of negative and/or unpredictable factors”.  

Secondary education in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is in the midst of a perfect storm, facing its own, unprecedented convergence of adverse or unpredictable factors. These factors include a fast-growing youth population placing significant pressure on existing education systems to meet growing demand; declining economic growth with which to finance the necessary expansion; continued deficits in foundational learning which get passed on and affect learning and success in secondary education; and new skill demands arising in response to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.   

Fast-Growing Youth Population

According to UN population projections, Africa’s population is set to double by 2050 - from 1.2 billion currently to 2.5 billion in 2050. Unlike other regions, where population growth has resulted from healthier populations that live longer, Africa’s population growth will largely be young (Goldstone, 2019). While for many this growth in Africa’s youth population holds promise of a ‘demographic dividend’ for the continent, fertility rates at 4.6 children per woman on average for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 (World Bank Data, 2022a) are still too high to achieve this goal. According to Goldstone (2019) in his article Africa 2050: Demographic Truth and Consequences, the demographic window for favorable development occurs when the population under-15 years of age represents 30% of the total population. However, for most African countries, their under-15 population stands at 40-50%. 

SSA’s fast-growing youth population is placing unprecedented demand on secondary education systems. According to the  Mastercard Foundation (2020) report Secondary Education in Africa: Preparing Youth for the Future of Work, demand for secondary education will increase by more than 46 million across the continent by 2030. This is in part due to strides made in increasing enrollment and completion rates in primary education, as well as demographic growth.   In Rwanda for example, it is estimated that secondary education enrollments will almost double by 2024, from 660,000 in 2018 to more than 1.025 million in 2024 (Laterite, 2020). 

Existing secondary education capacity is also strained. Currently, only 50% of youth attend lower secondary school on average across SSA, and 35% of eligible youth attend upper secondary education (UNESCO-UIS, 2022). Even with such low enrollment numbers, one study estimated that only 1 in 3 students that qualify for secondary education can obtain a place, though this varies widely by country (AAI, 2015). With secondary education costing more per capita to deliver than primary education (three times as much in Ghana and Mozambique and seven times as much in Rwanda), meeting this growing need will be significantly more ‘resource demanding’ (Mastercard Foundation, 2020).

Declining Economic Growth to Fuel the Expansion

Rising economic growth fueled much of the increase in education budgets that contributed to African success in achieving near universal primary education enrollment. Economic growth contributed about two-thirds to the rise in education budgets of 4-5% during the period 2000-2014 compared with a 1% rise during the period 1980-2000 (Fredrikson, 2018). However, African countries cannot rely on similar rates of economic growth to fuel expansion in secondary education. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa 2022 report, projects GDP growth of 4.5% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, albeit with significant variances across countries (IMF, 2022). This recovery is slower than other regions and lower in comparison with economic growth rates during the 2000-2014 period. A recent systematic review of education financing in Sub-Saharan Africa drew similar conclusions - that the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require sustained economic growth (Chikoko & Mthembu, 2020).

The long-term impact of COVID-19 exacerbates the growth challenge. As noted by UNESCO & World Bank (2021) Education Finance Watch 2021, two-thirds of low and lower-middle income countries have cut their education budgets due to COVID-19.  And this does not account for the additional costs of compensating for the massive learning loss due to COVID-19.

Household contributions to education are also expected to decline. In 2018-2019, household contributions to education spending in low-income countries were estimated at 38%, versus 16% in high-income countries (UNESCO & World Bank, 2021).  Yet household incomes are expected to decline because of unemployment or underemployment due to COVID-19, making education increasingly unaffordable, particularly for the most marginalized households.  Remittances, which have historically played an important role in financing household education spending, are also expected to decline by 20% in 2020 (Al-Samarrai et al., 2020).

Aid to education in Sub-Saharan Africa cannot be counted on to fill these gaps. Aid represents an increasingly small percentage of education financing for most countries and is itself in decline. Total aid to education in Sub Saharan Africa peaked in 2018 at US $15.6B (UNESCO, 2020). Yet the annual recurrent education financing gap to meet the SDGs is estimated at $40 billion annually (Lewin, 2020). These declines are happening at a time when the SDGs, which commit to universal primary and secondary education plus greater equity in access to TVET and higher education, are significantly more resource demanding. 

Deficits in Foundational Learning

The expansion of secondary education must take place in a context of persistent, low learning levels in primary education. This dual challenge – improving learning and completion at primary levels while expanding secondary education systems - places a significant burden on governments. 

While primary enrollment rates are near universal across Sub-Saharan Africa, primary completion rates remain stubbornly low at 70%, with little change in these numbers for the last 10 years (i.e. primary completion rates of 68% in 2010) (World Bank Data, 2022b). For those students enrolled in primary education, learning levels are low. The World Bank estimates learning poverty levels across Sub-Saharan Africa at 87%, meaning almost 9 in 10 children cannot read and understand a simple text by age 10 (World Bank, 2019).   

Low levels of learning have been exacerbated by widespread school closures and loss of learning during COVID-19. Learning loss due to COVID-19 is estimated to be one-half to a year, with up to 2.8 years of lost learning over a child’s academic life (Angrist et al., 2021). For example in Uganda, children have only just returned to classrooms after two years of closure.

So what does this crisis in primary education mean for secondary education? One, low levels of learning at primary carry over into secondary education. Students that enter secondary education without strong foundational skills are challenged to learn more advanced content and skills. This can contribute to increased drop out and repetition and is evidenced in low secondary education completion rates of approximately 40% across the continent (Mastercard Foundation, 2020). However, this indicator varies widely by country, socio-economic group, location, and gender. In more than 15 African countries, less than 5% of rural girls complete lower secondary education (Zubairi & Rose, 2019).   It also means that students require remedial or catch-up skills provision which is far more expensive to deliver in secondary education due to higher teacher costs and greater specialization, than it is to get foundational skills right at the primary level.

Often, failing students are routed into technical and vocational education and training, contributing to its widespread perception across Sub-Saharan Africa as education of last resort. Both scenarios – high repetition and drop out or remedial learning – are an inefficient use of scarce resources. 

In addition, young people that don’t complete secondary education are more likely to marry early, have more children, and exhibit poorer health outcomes.

New Skill Demands

African students cannot expect the same skill and job trajectory that propelled the success of other nations. For many East Asian countries, their path to prosperity was driven by growth in manufacturing. This will not be the same for Sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, the manufacturing sector represents 6.5% of economies in SSA on average and this is not predicted to change substantially until 2030 (Brown & Slater, 2018). Most students can expect to work in the informal sector, in agriculture or services, for the foreseeable future. 

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, driven by technology and automation, is changing both the task content of jobs and the organization of work, and is placing new skill demands on secondary education. Digital skills are required to navigate technological change sweeping across all industries. STEM skills underpin technology and innovation that are driving change. Employers cite lack of 21st century skills or transferable skills as the most significant area of skills mismatch. With new jobs arising, and many future jobs unknown, students require the skills and mindsets to become adaptable, life-long learners (Mastercard Foundation, 2020). 

Given high primary and low tertiary enrollment rates, most youth will enter the world of work from secondary education(Mastercard Foundation, 2020). Yet many secondary education systems are still constructed as gateways to tertiary education with an academic and overly theoretical focus. Rote learning persists, denying youth the opportunity of active learning to develop communications, teamwork, critical thinking, and problem-solving skills. STEM subjects are underrepresented in student choices and pathways and schools are poorly equipped to deliver these subjects. Despite the importance of digital skills in all future areas of work, most secondary schools lack the infrastructure, equipment, and teacher skills to impart digital learning. Research from the Center for Global Development finds only 19M of over 450 million children are using edtech and most of these users (17 million) are watching television (Crawfurd, 2020).

Some countries have embarked on competency-based education reforms designed to respond to this challenge. However, the process is hampered by slow rollouts, unprepared teachers, and lack of learning materials. At the same time, the world of work keeps changing faster than education systems can respond. A more flexible approach is required.

Consequences of Inaction

The consequences are profound. Early marriage and high fertility rates will continue amongst girls that fail to access and complete secondary education. Lack of quality education will keep youth in a low productivity/low wage cycle of informal, vulnerable employment. Inequities will grow, as private schools expand to meet market demand and well-off families pull their children from public schools, taking with them their voice and advocacy for improved learning. The global divide between highly educated countries and those with limited or poor-quality education systems will expand. Youth without skills to navigate the future of work will become increasingly disenfranchised with reverberations for governance and security. High fertility rates, driven by low secondary school completion, particularly for girls, will place pressures on climate change and resource use. 

This is not just Africa’s problem; it is a global problem. By 2050, with almost every region’s youth population in decline, Africa’s workforce will be the world’s workforce (Goldstone, 2019). 

So what can be done?

Unprecedented challenges require urgent, innovative, and long-term thinking. Here are a few ideas for governments, donors, and education actors alike to consider.

1.      Increase sustainable finance for secondary education. Secondary education is one of the most important investments that can be made in Africa’s future. Investments in secondary education will decrease fertility rates necessary to create the conditions for a demographic dividend from its growing youth population. With fewer dependents per working age adult, countries can increase their per capita investment in education and improve the quality and productivity of their future workforce. While aid has historically been an important source of education spending, and remains so for some countries, it is inadequate to meet needs. Countries can and must do more to raise sustainable financing for secondary education. As estimated by Lewin (2020), countries would need to invest approximately 6% of GDP in education to meet the Sustainable Development Goals with quality, an amount which far exceeds historical education spending of 3.5% - 4.5%. Countries must also find ways to increase the resource base for education through increased taxation. Yet SSA rates of taxation are far lower than OECD countries (Lewin, 2020).  Even then countries will need to find ways to crowd in additional resources from private sources. Strong national education coalitions are needed to advocate for and sustain investment levels.

2.      Make it cheaper. While more resources are undoubtedly needed for secondary education, there is much that can be done to maximize the use of scarce resources by reducing inefficiencies. One of the most critical is addressing inefficiencies in primary education so the problems of weak foundational skills that inhibit learning and success at secondary levels are not passed on. Other options include eliminating or reducing the high costs of boarding schools; improving teacher deployment, workload, specialization, and time on task; expanding existing primary schools to include lower secondary education; and strengthening utilization of technology in ways to reduce inefficiencies and lower costs such as digital learning materials, smoothing processes for teacher compensation, improving real time data collection, and more. Growing urbanization also offers opportunities to achieve economies of scale in secondary education delivery.

3.      Help those that have missed out to catch up. 2 of 4 adolescents in SSA have missed the opportunity of completing secondary school. With the average 15-year-old in the workforce for the next 40 – 50 years, this represents significant wasted potential, both now and over the course of their lives. Expand innovative options for secondary education through alternative forms of provision that meet the diverse needs of students, such as night schools, blended learning options, distance education, and community driven models and approaches.  Critically, these alternatives must provide certification of learning and ensure pathways to higher levels of learning remain open.

4.      Utilize resources that are plentiful.  The rising number of youth presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Graduates from secondary schools can be deployed as volunteers and interns to support teachers and engage with and contribute to their communities. This is a win-win. These models are working as evidenced by the growing Teach for All movement, Mastercard Foundation’s Leaders in Teaching Program, and CAMFED’s Learner Guides. In addition to youth, secondary education systems can explore options to engage community members or business leaders to compliment and support the teacher base and provide unique perspectives and opportunities for learning. 

5.      Align curriculum to workforce needs. Reform curriculum to match workforce needs now and in the future by prioritizing STEM, digital skills, entrepreneurial and innovative thinking, experiential learning, problem solving and values-based education. Many of the future skills youth need require reforming not what teachers teach, but how they teach it. Teachers require new pedagogical approaches, aligned with curriculum and assessment reforms, to create change. This requires upgrading pre-service teacher training to ensure old teaching methods are not continuously reproduced, as well as promoting the best teachers into in-service training roles to spread best practice. 

6.      Invest in digital skills. Digital skills are the currency of the future labor force. Students without these skills will be left behind.  Promote efforts to integrate technology into all aspects of teaching and learning and cultivate a school leadership environment supportive of digital learning. Concurrently, invest in infrastructure, devices, and digital technologies to support technology-based learning, such as Rwanda’s Smart Classrooms. This is also a potential space for catalytic aid and investments. 

Kimberley Kerr is a consultant working in the education sector.

References

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